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戴文渊2018亚布力论坛闭幕演讲:AI泡沫是否会破裂?关键看落地

2018-3-5 13:53| 发布者: admin| 查看: 18498| 评论: 12

  根据《IT桔子》近期发布的报告显示,2017年对于中国人工智能行业的“总投资额”达582亿人民币,相较前几年实现了较大幅度增长。投资界对人工智能的火热追捧,不禁让一些人联想到2000年前后的互联网行业,过度投资导致了“泡沫”产生。人工智能到底有没有泡沫?“人工智能时代”是否真正到来?成为了当今很多企业家关注和忧虑的问题。

  2018年2月27日,备受瞩目的“亚布力中国企业家论坛第十八届年会”在黑龙江亚布力召开,年会上针对企业家所关注的热点问题,柳传志、王石、郭广昌等企业家代表展开了广泛讨论。在闭幕式上,第四范式创始人、CEO戴文渊代表人工智能行业的企业家,发表了针对企业如何在“泡沫论”威胁下、挤进人工智能快车道的演讲。

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  对于大家所关注的人工智能是否会出现泡沫破灭,戴文渊提出,避免人工智能产业出现泡沫,甚至破裂,关键是要做好产业落地工作。回顾刚刚过去的2017,人工智能收获了政策的红利、资本的青睐。然而,纵观整个产业,畅想未来的多,关注眼前的少;钻研前沿算法的多,关注产业落地的少。企业忙于构建各种“大脑”,却忽视了“学习”和“训练”环境的构建,而未经充分学习的大脑,无法产生好的人工智能。2018年,整个人工智能行业将面临“期中考试”,业界对人工智能的要求不再是“仰望星空”,而是要规模化落地,为社会创造价值。能成功突破工业红线的人工智能将产生巨大价值,扩散到经济领域的各个角落。而狭义的单凭AI算法或技术、没有商业化落地的企业,将无法适应于接下来的行业态势,可能会在今年看到泡沫的破灭。

  算法不能创造社会价值,AI落地抵御“泡沫忧虑”

  当前,产业界对AI的需要到达了爆发的临界点——放眼国内企业所处的环境,人口红利消失,增长开始回归效率与运营,企业需要做得更精细、贴合用户真实需求,才能把客户吸引过来。人工智能技术可以从数据中快速发掘更多、更细的业务规则(这些规则单依靠业务专家需要上百年),从而大幅提升企业中后台运营效率,并从前端业务上洞察客户偏好,精细化地做出判断,帮助企业在市场中占据有利位置。

  在这样的形势下,AI被寄予了成为下一代产业革命驱动力的厚望。近年来,“算法”也成为企业最为重视的课题,顶尖科学家随之抬为天价,更不乏有企业贴上算法突破的标签就出去讲故事、炒估值。戴文渊认为,算法只是AI应用中用于“思考”的工具,相当于人的大脑,但一个大脑即使再聪明,没有得到良好的学习和训练环境,没有付诸于行动,也没办法完成创造价值的过程。

  仅凭算法不能产生智能,戴文渊总结了产生人工智能的完整路径——由于机器是基于过去的知识与经验,经过无数次的思考与进步,最终输出一个最优策略,因此,需要构建用以机器“学习—思考—行为”的外部环境,总结为“BRAIN”:在机器的“学习”过程中,需要为它创造学习环境,业内称之为过程数据(Big-data)、反馈数据(Response);其次,机器的“思考”过程需要匹配合适的算法(Algorithm)、以及能够满足数据量的计算资源(Infrastructure);最后,要将AI的决策应用到具体的生产环境中(Needs),在最终的“行为”空间里去创造价值。

  戴文渊也表示,当前行业内全链路的建设还非常不完善,有碍AI价值的最大化。这也是为什么第四范式专注于为企业建设AI核心系统,打通企业产生AI能力的最重要的原因。只有把AI全链路的基础夯实,将“良好的学习环境”、“优秀的大脑”和“广泛的落地实践”相结合,企业的数据资源和算法能力、才能真正转化为商业环境中决胜的产业革命动能。

  门槛降低加速落地,人工智能平台成“诺亚方舟”

  从数据、人才到场景应用,AI天然的跨越工业化的红线门槛过高,导致了目前只有少部分能够合纵连横的大企业受益于此。更多的企业想参与进来,往往是选用AI公司提供的特定场景的技术、来解决单一的业务问题,这不仅局限了各行业对于AI应用场景的想象空间,也使企业自身并不具备AI能力,在AI推动的技术革命中处于被动局面。

  为此,戴文渊带领的第四范式坚持做以赋能各行业为导向的AI公司,在过去的三年,当业界都在追捧效果更好的算法时,第四范式却扎扎实实地研发低门槛的领先算法,去找到技术要进入人类生活必须达到的最优解。发展至今,第四范式已经将AI落地的条件“BRAIN”,封装到了其核心产品“第四范式先知”企业AI核心系统中。“第四范式先知”企业AI核心系统集合了数据核心、算法核心和生产核心三大模块,囊括了AI“学习—思考—行为”过程的基础要素,并以容易使用的AI系统的形式,让所有普通人成为AI的建立者与使用者,在自己的行业快速、低成本、大规模地落地AI。日前,MIT颁布的“全球十大突破技术”榜单中,第四范式凭借低门槛的AI平台技术,与谷歌、微软等并肩入榜。

  人工智能行业已经打响了技术落地行业的最关键的战役,厮杀也从实验室转战到金融、医疗、教育、制作业等各个工业领域,几十年前,前两轮的人工智能都退潮于此。当下AI又到达了这跨越产业应用鸿沟之际,对于人工智能从业者来说,不要一味地追逐算法与炫技,一切阻碍AI落地的困难才是要征服的目标。对于企业家而言,要更加警惕没有场景落地和平台支持的AI“空中楼阁”。


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