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2018中国消费信贷市场研究报告: 中国消费金融市场发展空间巨大 万亿蓝海待爆发

2019-1-18 11:39| 发布者: steven| 查看: 1810| 评论: 250

  随着人们生活水平的提高,当期收入已无法满足人们的消费需求,消费金融行业随之迎来前所未有的增长。1月18日,由清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院中国与世界经济研究中心(CCWE)主办的“新经济形势下,消费金融行业发展之路”第四届中国消费金融高层论坛在京举行。与此同时,《2018中国消费信贷市场研究》(下称,报告)正式发布,持牌消费金融公司的普惠金融服务水平持续提高,成熟的商业模式正在引领行业快速发展。在当前复杂严峻的经济形式下,作为主力军的持牌公司通过提高整体消费水平,促进了经济的快速发展。

  据悉,此次报告调研涵盖了全国30个省区的109个城市,其中包含省会城市、计划单列市和部分三线、四线城市,调研涉及获批的金融公司、银行、其他金融机构、网贷代理平台等50家各种类型的消费信贷提供商共计1169份样本。

  本次论坛得到了政府相关部门、经济领域学者、消费金融企业等行业专家大力支持,企业高层代表、清华大学知名经济学专家、专业媒体等共同就新经济形势下,消费金融发展之路、如何达到消费金融企业创新与开展业务合规相统一、如何拓展消费金融公司融资途径以及加强内部风险管理等问题进行了深入探讨。

  消费成经济增长驱动力

  在经济下行的压力下,以往三驾马车主要依靠投资,而现在则转向消费驱动。从核算角度看,2018年前三季度最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率是78%,比上年同期提高了14个百分点。

  除消费不断增长外,消费者的消费行为正在不断改变。80、90后已逐渐成为主要消费人群,与传统消费群体不同,新兴消费群体的消费观念更加超前,价格已不再是决定消费的唯一因素,借贷观念更易被接受;此外,受消费升级影响,三、四线等小镇城市消费人群的消费水平也在不断提高。

  在此背景下,当期现金已无法满足人们消费需求,而传统借贷业务又格外看重资产。消费金融公司凭借审核快、授信灵活等特点满足了消费者的即时与潜在需求。中国人民银行数据显示,短期消费贷款已由2004年的1253亿元增长至2018年9月的8.23万亿元,增长近66倍,而同期中长期消费贷款仅增长15倍。

  报告显示,仅消费金融部分,规模已由2010年1月的6798亿元攀升至2018年10月的8.45万亿元,占境内贷款比重由1.7%上升至6.3%。但我们注意到,对比国际来看,国内消费金融产业2015年消费信贷(除房贷以外)占总消费支出的比例仅为20%,低于韩国的41%和美国的28%,所以相对意义上中国消费金融发展滞后发达国家较多,仍有广阔发展空间。

  随着中国人均GDP突破8000美元,消费者升级换代的欲望非常强烈,消费正从量向质、有形商品向服务层面转变,居民消费选项也因互联网、大数据、云计算和物联网大大拓展,而消费金融由于无抵押、小金额和普惠性等特征覆盖到传统金融所不能触及的潜在消费市场,以不同场景和消费业态为内容,消费金融产品能够满足不同层次不同需求的消费者,使消费真正成为新常态后中国经济增长的重要引擎。

  从G20峰会发布的普惠金融指标体系和清华大学CCWE指标体系评估对比结果来看,消费金融公司作为发展普惠金融的中坚力量在市场上的表现越来越明显。特别是排名前列的捷信、中银及兴业等金融公司,近些年通过大力分布网点、发展场景式消费贷款及开发样式多、线上线下全覆盖、申请灵活的消费金融产品,满足了传统金融机构所覆盖不到的领域。

  清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任、中国经济思想与实践研究院院长,李稻葵表示,未来中国消费金融行业发展前景很好,2019年的关键字是“变”,消费金融相关政策已经出现了本质性的、方向性的调整。随着中国消费对经济的贡献度增加、消费贷款在贷款总规模盘子中比重增加、消费贷款中房贷、车贷等中长期贷款比重降低,消费金融公司可以凭借其自身优势大力拓展与商业银行错位发展的无抵押、无担保消费贷款,使无抵押、无担保消费贷款在整体消费贷款中比例大幅上升,消费金融公司将迎来万亿蓝海市场。

  清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任、中国经济思想与实践研究院院长,李稻葵

  科技金融助力消费场景多元化

  由于抵押物欠缺和征信体系不完善等因素影响,小微企业、农民、城镇低收入人群、贫困人群和残疾人、老年人等特殊群体成为普惠金融重点服务对象。而这些群体对于消费金融公司而言,正是与传统信贷业务错位博弈的机会,因此,普惠已成为消费金融公司的一大特点。

  值得注意的是,自从2014年银监会允许消费金融公司可以开展异地业务以来,各家消费金融公司不断将产品和服务向中西部、三四线城市、甚至乡村下沉,拓展城乡金融服务的广度和深度。

  从调查数据来看,消费信贷的用途较为宽泛,满足了消费者在各个方面的消费需求。相比比重方面,买家电占比为26%,教育培训、旅游、家庭装修和非车交通工具比重分别为16.4%、10%、13.6%和7.8%。

  金融消费多场景的发展,离不开科技的助力。消费金融企业目前正在运用互联网技术,创新金融服务手段、提升金融行业资源配置效率;并利用互联网+等技术手段,优化金融服务渠道、创新手段,通过手机、APP、网上直销、电子商务平台等渠道,构建线下网点和线上补充的业务网络体系。

  正是在科技的支撑下,消费金融得以覆盖更多场景,目前消费金融公司的布局主要集中于商业银行“无暇”顾及的细分领域,范围涵盖大众消费、婚庆、家政、养老、健康消费、信息消费、旅游休闲消费、教育文化体育消费等消费热点领域。

  业内人士认为,在新监管和去杠杆形势下,通过不断开发消费新场景并嵌入金融服务将是消费金融公司主要发展方向。随着互金平台陆续退出,持牌机构头部公司则需要不断规范自身行为强化龙头效应。未来,科技手段提高风控能力有望成为消费金融公司的护城河,利用降低逾期风险等方式提高平台收入利润,并依靠细分领域消费场景,获得多元化获客渠道。

  持牌公司业务模式趋于成熟

  根据清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心2018消费信贷市场报告的指标体系(CCWE指标体系)结果显示,通过“普”和“惠”值加总就得到出普惠金融的衡量度,其中普+惠综合排名前五名分别是捷信消费金融、中邮消费金融、农业银行、招联消费金融、兴业消费金融等设立较早的消费金融公司。该结果即反应了中国目前消费金融市场服务大众满足不同层次金融需求的发展现实,也说明较早成立的捷信、中邮、兴业等不同消费金融主体的业务模式正变得日臻成熟。

  值得注意的是,参考G20峰会发布的普惠金融指标体系从金融使用情况、可得性和质量三个方面,对所有调查样本消费金融公司进行评价。其中,在质量指标上录得较高分的为捷信消费金融、中银消费金融、盛银消费金融、上海银行。而从G20普惠指标体系总分来看,排名靠前仍然是捷信、兴业为代表等消费金融公司。评价结果总体与与清华大学CCWE指标体系评估出来的结果变现差异不大。

  从市场主体看,获批消费金融公司已由2009年的4家增至目前的23家,23家消费金融公司中主要出资代表还是传统商业银行,这一方面是传统商业银行挖掘消费金融领域的做法,另一方面以持牌的捷信消费金融,以及蚂蚁花呗、京东白条等电商背景为代表的消费金融公司以及众多的网络小贷牌照共同组成了主体多元的消费金融市场。

  对于未来消费金融发展政策的建议方面,业内专家一致认为,首先要将各类消费贷企业纳入统一的监管体系;第二,大力发展多层次资本市场,拓宽消费金融公司融资途径;第三,不断发掘长尾客户和利基市场,挖掘潜在客户需求。因此应该开拓农村信贷市场,将具有稳定收入的农户做为服务对象;第四,加强内部风险管理;最后,建立完备的个人征信系统。政府应将个人涉及的所有行业纳入征信系统中,而不仅仅是各商业银行的信贷数据,实现信息共享。

  业内人士认为,未来消费金融将继续处于增长期,行业整体将保持快速增长。消费场景、风控能力、获客能力和资金端获取能力将成为消费金融平台的核心竞争因素。而政策的完善也将成为关键,不管是行业的统一监管、融资渠道的多元化,还是个人征信系统的完善都将成为促进行业健康良性发展的重要因素。


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