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搜狗输入法夸大市场占有率是困境下焦虑心态的体现?

2019-9-29 15:55| 发布者: admin| 查看: 402| 评论: 26|原作者: 佚名|来自: 互联网

近日,央视市场研究机构CTR发布了《2019年手机输入法语音输入功能市场研究报告》(以下简称CTR报告),就2019年语音输入法市场占有率和用户使用情况给出了数据。对于该报告,《人民日报》额文章称,矛盾重重,逻辑不能自恰,这种情况,明白地反应出搜狗在当前整体发展不景气、资金短缺、增长停滞等困局下的焦虑心态。

 

CTR报告显示,2019年,搜狗、讯飞和百度为首的三大输入法占据了近95%的市场份额,其中搜狗市场份额76.9%独占3/4,日均语音请求5.84亿次超过了百度与讯飞两家频次之和。

 

文章指出,这份报告并不严谨,很多方面自相矛盾,可信度极低。

 

首先是样本量。CTR报告空有4000样本量却在数据来源上单一以及对计算模型的“含糊”,使得报告的可信度大打折扣。

 

其次是以偏概全。CTR能够在9月份即发布2019年全年报告,其根据何来?CTR以主观臆测来代替科学调研,公信度再打折扣。

 

最后是数据矛盾。CTR报告前半部分称,搜狗、百度、讯飞三家占到95%的市场份额,但在具体分配上,搜狗高出百度近10倍,高出讯飞近8倍,除了市场占有率数据,搜狗自称语音输入日均语音请求5.84亿次超过了百度与讯飞两家频次之和。不过,在报告的后半部分,谈到语音时,却显示语音输入日均请求频次,搜狗仅比讯飞、百度高出1倍多一点。

 

顺着CTR报告的逻辑,唯一合理的解释就是讯飞、百度的用户语音使用情况远远好于搜狗,所以才会在市场占有率远低于搜狗的情况下,语音使用实现了“追赶”。然而,同样是CTR的报告中,又提到搜狗用户每天使用语音输入法功能的时长最长。

问题来了,市场占有率遥遥领先,用户的语音使用情况又最好,按道理日均请求上应该再拉大差距,从8倍、10倍到9倍、11倍等等才对,为何差距反而大大缩小,只在一两倍之间了?

 

据此,文章认为CTR报告中的论断过于夸张,无法让人信服,有些急不可耐突出搜狗“第一”地位的感觉。这一现象,某种程度上可能反应出了搜狗的整体焦虑。

 

文章表示,8月初,搜狗公布2019Q2财报,总营收为3.036亿美元,归属于搜狗的净利润为2130万美元,而去年同期为3820万美元,一方面绝对值低,另一方面同比也出现了大幅下降。财报发布当日,本来就不太景气的搜狗股价又应声下跌11.6%

搜狗或正陷入增长停滞的泥潭,这个时候不论对内、对外、对投资者都需要“稳定军心”的素材,CTR的报告在9月出炉或许是最好的安慰剂,这也无口厚非。只是,输入法与AI融合后,走向未来需要更多领头羊产品做出担当,切不可把安慰剂当麻醉剂使用,蒙蔽了自己追逐技术、追逐未来的初心。




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